The Iraqi Candidate :: Iraq Politics Political Essays

The Iraqi Candidate To prefer evil to good is not in human nature and when a man is compelled to engage one of two evils, no one will choose the greater when he may have the less. Socrates Its the day of the 2004 presidential election. People swarm into man school gymnasiums, fill the voting booths, and escape a while later into the crisp autumn air. The trees have turned and the streets are covered in red-brown debris and yet, the States is tense today. Today, the day when many people get out whether all of their efforts have been in vain. Today is the day when the future of America is decided. Today is not just any day it has the power to change Tomorrow. With so much riding on the 2004 election it is not surprising to find that presidential campaigns have gone to a whole new level. People are using media that has never been used before to express their opinions about the election. The Michael Moore word picture Fahrenheit 9/11 about the September 11th attack and the war that followed was a big step in using popular media to demonstrate political issues. That film was intended to swing votes away from President Bush by examining closely many of the mistakes he made during his presidency. Fahrenheit 9/11 is the first example of a movie trying to have a direct impact on an election. It is a documentary which was made to articulate Michael Moores receiveings on certain political issues for the general public. Because it is an independent film it is not so surprising that it is also biased. Unfortunately political propaganda has invaded mainstream movies as well, where people are not prepared for it and the messages are more subtle and difficult to discern. I was shocked and appalled to see a mainstream movie filled with political messages where there didnt imply to be any. After watching the 2004 remake of The Manchurian Candidate the only question that I am left with is whether the movie was meant to reflect the way A mericans feel about terrorism or instill in us a fear of terrorism which would cause the election results to lean favorably towards George W.

Biblical References in Pulp Fiction Essay -- Film Movie Quentin Tarant

Pulp FictionThroughout the movie Pulp Fiction, directed by Quentin Tarantino, in that location are many a(prenominal) hidden references to religion and the Bible. The movie starts off,introducing our two main characters, Vincent Vega and Jules Winnfield, as twocheap hitmen in search of a package belong to their boss, Marcellus Wallace.The package is retrieved, and they then began their job of returning it to theirboss. Along the way, they ran into difficulties, such as Vegas so-calleddate with his boss wife, Mia, during which she overdosed on heroin, and Vegawas forced to take her to the drug dealers house to deliver her life, as head asthe robbers in the restaurant, who turn out to take the suitcase from Winnfield, butwere unsuccessful. The unit movie serves as a warning to all mankind to avoidthe temptations of the Devil, as well as a warning to not try to play God,because the two boys who stole the suitcase play the role of the Devil, as dothe drugs, and they were almost the downfall of the whole attempt. The movie wasted no time in introducing the first biblical referencewhen the two men try to retrieve the suitcase containing Wallaces belongings.When Vega opened the suitcase, he used the combination 666 to open thesuitcase, and when he opened it, the contents glowed a golden-orange color.This was obviously an introductory attempt to steer the audience that thesuitcase held Marcellus soul. Perhaps Tarantino was trying to show that thepeople that stole the suitcase were the devils pawns, and these two hitmen wereangels trying to retrieve stolen property.After Vega and Winnfield had obtained their treasure, Winnfield quotationdthe Bible, specifically Ezekiel 2517, the conversion about destroying the evilmembers of the society that try to harm others for no reason. Part of thatpassage was ..and you will know my name is the Lord, when I lay my vengeanceupon thee. This quote shows that Winnfield sees what he is doing as heroic, ormaybe angelic, and by carrying out his duties, he is following the word of theLord. As Winnfield shot the boy, Brett, an orange-golden glow enveloped thescreen, representing Bretts soul leaving his body. This whole part of themovie is to warn the evil-doers of the world to cease their computer errors, becausethere are people out there who will stop them. The next main purview of... ...od, sometimes what he does is not right,and he is trying to be the one that always does the right thing the shepherd.This is another reason why Jules is not killed off. He realized that he cannotplay God, and therefore he is forgiven. Vincent, however, never fully realizedthis, and he is punished at the end of the story by macrocosm killed by Butch. Although cleverly hidden, the signs of biblical inference and the powerof God are extremely prevalent in the film. Elements of the plot such as therealization of wrongdoing by Jules, the general feeling that the Wallaces aretrying to be all knowing and all powerfu l, the drug dealer being the downfall aswell as the savior for Mia, and the way that Jules and Vincent try to controlothers lives and are punished for it all show us something. These signs show usthat we must do as we think we should, and not try to control anyone butyourself, because if you are busy trying to control others, you may not betending to yourself, leaving yourself dewy-eyed open to manipulation by others likeyourself. If we mind our own business and take care of ourselves, the worldwould go a lot smoother, and have many fewer conflicts.

The Sun Will Rise Over Moldova :: Personal Narrative Writing

The sun Will Rise Over MoldovaIt is 530 in the morning, and I heretofore fill like I am dreaming. The officer asks for my Passport, I give it to him and look back. My mother with her face wet with tears says something, but the words do not reach me. I shake to move on, but I know this is a moment of extreme importance in my behavior. Somebody by my side tells an anecdote everybody is laughing, but I felt deep in my thoughts. My flight to New York is in less than 30 minutes. Moldova is a small create country in South-central Europe. Its parsimoniousness is in transition from a command to a market economy, and the life of the society is directly associated with the fluctuations in monetary need. People have a problematical time. Sometimes there is no heat in winter, or the salary is not paid on time. in that respect are limited energy resources, so it is common not to have electricity certain hours or gas for cooking. It is strange for people to think it is damp somewhere, an d the movies and TV shows round the United States attend like a far, impossible reality. I dreamed about it.In this environment some years ago a few foundations established in Moldova, and they provide a free cultural exchange for high school students. They have their goals to teach the youth about a better system of life arrangements, which can be brought to life in Moldova, too. The country of freedom, democracy, and economical wealth was not so far now. I was one of those willing to see the late continent, and I knew that all the efforts are worth it. I forced myself to be better, involved myself in many activities, and began poring over English intensively, because I knew it would not be easy to achieve the goal. Every year thousands of students enter the contest, but only 20 or 30 befool the funding. In 1996 I entered the contest supervise by FSA ( Freedom Support Act ) and founded by the Congress of the United States of America. After 6 month of tests, essays, and extr eme emotions I did not win the contest. I was disappointed and ready to quit, but I did not. It was not finished yet. The next year my name was on the contestants distinguish again. I applied for two scholarships, the FSA and the Soros Foundation.The Sun Will Rise Over Moldova Personal Narrative WritingThe Sun Will Rise Over MoldovaIt is 530 in the morning, and I still fill like I am dreaming. The officer asks for my Passport, I give it to him and look back. My mother with her face wet with tears says something, but the words do not reach me. I have to move on, but I know this is a moment of extreme importance in my life. Somebody by my side tells an anecdote everybody is laughing, but I felt deep in my thoughts. My flight to New York is in less than 30 minutes. Moldova is a small developing country in South-central Europe. Its economy is in transition from a command to a market economy, and the life of the society is directly associated with the fluctuations in financial need. People have a hard time. Sometimes there is no heat in winter, or the salary is not paid on time. There are limited energy resources, so it is common not to have electricity certain hours or gas for cooking. It is strange for people to think it is better somewhere, and the movies and TV shows about the United States seem like a far, impossible reality. I dreamed about it.In this environment some years ago a few foundations established in Moldova, and they provide a free cultural exchange for high school students. They have their goals to teach the youth about a better system of life arrangements, which can be brought to life in Moldova, too. The country of freedom, democracy, and economical wealth was not so far now. I was one of those willing to see the new continent, and I knew that all the efforts are worth it. I forced myself to be better, involved myself in many activities, and began studying English intensively, because I knew it would not be easy to achieve the goal. Every ye ar thousands of students enter the contest, but only 20 or 30 receive the funding. In 1996 I entered the contest supervised by FSA ( Freedom Support Act ) and founded by the Congress of the United States of America. After 6 month of tests, essays, and intense emotions I did not win the contest. I was disappointed and ready to quit, but I did not. It was not finished yet. The next year my name was on the contestants list again. I applied for two scholarships, the FSA and the Soros Foundation.

Nettles For Food and Medicine :: Botany

Nettles For Food and MedicineDespite its nondescript appearance, the stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) has a knack for grabbing the attention of anyone passing by. Unfortunately, or so mass never notice nettles until they are viciously attacked with sharp, hot, itching stings. Consequently, most people familiar with nettles regard them as pesky and undesirable weeds. Few people right away realize that nettles may actually be counted among natures most useful prepares. As is frequently the case with common names, the term nettle is often used for plants that arent nettles at all. In the Midwest, the plant known as Red Dead-Nettle is actually a member of the Mint Family and the Horse Nettle (which is poisonous) is actually a Nightshade (Seymour, 1997). The true nettles belong to to the Urticaceae, as well known as the Nettle Family. The Nettle Family is free-base worldwide and consists of about 45 genera and 700-1000 species. Most of the species are tropical and herbaceous (Walters and Keil, 1996). Urtica dioica, the plant most often called by the name Stinging Nettle, is a dioecious perennial plant that stands about one meter tall. It has simple, opposite, toothed leaves (5-10cm long) with persistent stipules and, most importantly, stinging trichomes. The radially symmetrical flowers are arranged in axillary panicles, completely lack petals, and have 4 sepals and 4 stamens. The fruits are small, oval achenes (1-2mm long). In addition to growing from seed, the plants are able to spread rhizomatously (Radford, Ahles and Bell, 1968). The Stinging Nettle is actually not nearly as common in the U.S. as the tight related Wood Nettle (Laportea canadensis). The Wood Nettle is often mistaken for the Stinging Nettle by most people because the Wood Nettle also has stinging hairs. Laportea canadensis is not as tall as Urtica dioica, has larger leaves (up to 20cm) and minute stipules. The staminate flowers have 5 sepals and 5 stamens and are found in axillary panicles. The pistillate flowers have only 4 sepals and are found in either terminal or axillary panicles. The achene is crescent-shaped (Radford, Ahles and Bell, 1968). The woodwind nettle grows well in rich forests and may be particularly abundant along hiking trails near streams. Hikers are frequently dismayed to discover that when much(prenominal) trails arent carefully maintained, nettles quickly begin to arch dangerously over the paths. There are several other species from the Nettle Family in the United States, but only 4 of the genera represented, Urtica, Hesperocnide, Laportea, and Urera, have the characteristic stinging trichomes.

Sociology :: Sociology Essays

Intro to SociologyWhen asked about transsexuals, Mildred Brown, author of True Selves quoted that it is a dilemma of feeling trapped in the wrong physical gender. Transsexuality is a phenomenon, which genuinely has not been scientifically examined. Through talk shows such as Jerry Springer, Jenny Jones or the Maury Show, society tends to see a one-sided view on this matter. speckle watching the Maury Show, Man or Woman, the interviews reaction to the transsexuals on stage were not of disgust but more of concern. They were in awe that a man could look so much like a woman and how some women showed very masculine features. The guests on this show were inevitably labeled as "freaks" regardless of whether it was verbally spoken or not. The talk show was a brief one. Maury Povich, the host, introduced 12 beautiful women onto the stage. There were two black women, phoebe bird Hispanic women, and five white women on stage. They all flaunted their flawless bodies. Some were volu ptuous others were more on the thinner side, yet none of them seemed to be some(prenominal) different than any other model/porn star. All the guests on this show were in their mid twenties to their mid thirties. The theme of this show was for the audience to see if they could tell the difference between a man and a woman.      Watching the faces in the audience, I noted that each and every one of them were judgement all the guests. were 100% men, and some were 100% women. They all stood in a line and for each one, the cross-dressing guests would either prove the audience wrong or make up in their judgments. On more than half of the guests, the audience was proven wrong. It was incredible to see some of these guests strut their bodies as the opposite gender. Some of the men looked so much like women that the audience was in complete shock when they revealed their true gender. Now came the interrogation. I call this an interrogation because all these guests are individually ensnare on under the spotlight. Maury Povich digs under their skin to try to expose how freakish they really are. The audience is silent and their faces are wrinkled in disarray to try to understand why the guests are the way they are and who or what made them become like this. The guests sit on their chairs with their head held up high, legs crossed, mirthfulness under all the attention they are receiving.

Frank Sinatra Essay -- Biography

Frank Sinatra was widely known from coast to coast. He was definitely one of the most popular stars of his era. (3) He, not only was a singer/ song writer, but as his career grew he shifted smoothly into acting and dancing. Ole Blue look was an American icon who was capable of charming his elan by means of each decade that rolled by. He had a sound that carried like no other. His soft voice could sweep women off their feet and right into his arms. Ole downcast eyes had an extraordinary talent and sure did not waste it. It all started when Italian immigrants, Martin and Natalie Sinatra gave birth to a baby boy on December 12, 1915. On that night Francis Albert Sinatra was born not breathing. His grandmother decided to hold him under water. Thankful, he began to gasp for air. Even since the beginning Frank made his way through unfavorable odds. Martin, Sinatras father, was a firefighter for the city of Hoboken, New Jersey. Franks mother, Natalie or she was often re ferred to as Dolly, was an amateur singer who often compete at clubs and social events. (1) As Frank grew so did his love for music. His first real passion for music came when his uncle gave him a ukulele. On hot summer nights Sinatra would tantalize out on his front porch while playing and singing to family and friends. Frank never had to take singing lessons. His wonderful gift came from the Lord. Were they lived was a rough resemblance so Frank had to be on his guard almost all the time. To protect himself, he decided to take up boxing. Later on he would become a competetent boxer. (1) Frank Attended Demarest High School. He was a generous, but pugnacious person. These characteristics would follow him throughout his entire life. He competed in all... ...e and alcoholic drink abuse. Frank Sinatras career spanned for more than fifty years. He ventured from recordings, film television as well as countless performances in night clubs, project halls, and sports arenas. (3) He was truly the first modern pop star. The audiences who grew up with him and his music were complemented by adoration from younger generations. They have all made Ole Blue Eyes one of the most outstanding popular singers of the 20th century. His smooth style transcends through all generations and can survive the cold hard fact of time. He was able to withstand the great shifts in the time eras. He was a creative and gifted man who charmed the world with his blue eyes and well-favoured smile. No matter how you see him the starry eyed boy next door, the bruised romantic, or the smooth cosmopolitan man he was and always will be Frank Sinatra.

Econometrics – Vietnam Cpi

Hanoi University Faculty of Management and Tourism Vietnams Consumer P sift office and Influencing Factors An Econometrics Report 5/11/2012 Tutorial 2 BA09 Lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh Tutor Ms. Tr? n Kim Anh Group members Nguy? n Th? Ha Giang ID 0904000018 Ngo Thi Mai Huong ID 0904000039 Le Thanh gigantic ID 0904000050 Bui Th? Huong Quyen ID 0904000072 Hoang Minh Thanh ID 0904000082 D? Dang Ti? n ID 0904000089 Truong Cong Tu? n ID 0904000091 Nguy? n Thanh Tuy? n ID 0904000092 AcknowledgementFirst and foremost, we would like to express our gratitude to all those who gave us the possibility to complete this research. We would like to carry our sincere thanks to our lecturer Ms. Dao Thanh Binh, PhD, lecturer of Faculty of Management and Tourism, Hanoi University, for her conscientious and dedicated lectures. Without her valuable knowledge, this research cannot be accomplished. Our deepest gratitude also goes to our beloved coach Ms. Tran Kim Anh, master. Her devoted instructions an d support were of great help.Without her heart-felt assistance and encouragement, this paper would not be able to come to this publication. Abstract In recent years, Vietnams pomposity has plusd to an alarming grade of two-digit, ranking itself adept of 5 amountries having the highest ostentation rate in the world. That Consumer P sieve Index (cost-of-living index) has incessantly escalated is the primary reason for such worrying issue. Our project, in that locationfore, is aimed at investigating and analyzing Vietnams cost-of-living index by political campaigning the impact of following factors on cost-of-living index USD/VND exchange rate, accelerator monetary value, rice harm and bullion supply.Henceforth, a prediction about inflation rate drawing from cost-of-living index and affecting factors psychoanalysis may be given to help us better prepare for problems that can occur as a result of distressing inflation. The model that can best illustrate blood between th e case-by-case variables and CPI has been detected. Basing on our research, it is apparent that those four variables kick in a significant influence on Consumer Price Index. Table of Contents Acknowledgementii Abstractiii List of Tables and Figuresv 1. Introduction1 2. Methodology2 2. 1. Method of store selective entropyrmation and other sources2 . 2. Methods of processing the data2 3. Data analysis3 3. 1. Consumer Price Index3 3. 2. switch over rate4 3. 3. accelerator pedal expense5 3. 4. Rice price6 3. 5. Money supply7 4. Model specification7 4. 1. Variables and relationships7 4. 2. Model survival of the fittest8 5. reverting interpretation and hypothesis testing13 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation13 5. 2. Hypothesis testing13 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients13 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model15 5. 2. 3. analyse of canping insignificant variable16 6. demerits and limitation17 6. 1. Limitations17 6. 2.Errors and reme dials18 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity18 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity20 6. 2. 3. Autocorrelation21 7. Conclusion24 Appendixa Referencesb List of Tables and Figures Table 1 EView fixing result Lin-lin model9 Table 2 EView turnabout result Log-log model10 Table 3 EView retroflection result Lin-log model11 Table 4 EView regression result Log-lin model12 Table 5 R2 and CV likeness between models12 Table 6 EView regression result New model16 Table 7 EView regression result P-R,MS18 Table 8 EView regression result R-P,MS19 Table 9 EView regression result MS-P,R19Table 10 EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms)21 Table 11 EView regression result Durbin-Watson statistic22 Table 12 Breusch-Godfrey incidental Correlation LM test Lags 223 Figure 1 Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 20103 Figure 2 Vietnams USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 20104 Figure 3 Vietnams retail petrol price from 2000 to 20105 Figure 4 Vietnams rice price from 2000 to 20106 Figure 5 Vietnams money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND million)7 1. Introduction Every nation worldwide has ever confronted with inflation and attempting to solve inflation problem.Vietnam is not an exception. splashiness has proved to be one of the most concerned issues by both Vietnamese disposal and economists for nearly a decade as it has intention towards ceaselessly inflating since 2004. Inflation is an increase in overall prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. Inflation rate during a year leave likely rise if there is a escalation in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in that year comparing to prior year, basing on following formula InflationYear 2=CPIYear 2-CPIYear 1CPIYear 1 in that locationfore, understanding the nature of inflation and efficiently anticipating it can basically improve and streng and then the economy in generally, directional business towards better strategy, as well as helping people adapt to price change in particular. Not just now is CPI a powerful tool for gover nment and stinting experts to observe the whole societys level of consumption, but it also, more than importantly, predict the inflation rate that may have a considerable impact on the whole economy as well as the peoples daily lives.According to World situate and International Monetary Funds (IMF), however, Vietnam is listed in high-inflation zone with a growing CPI. As for IMFs facts, Vietnams CPI in August 2011 went up by 23. 02% compared to the selfsame(prenominal) month of 2010 CPI in December 2011 also increased by 15. 68% compared to 2010. likewise, Vietnams economy has witnessed a simultaneous boost in price of goods and petrol throughout the year, together with decreasing purchasing power in recent years. Do these facts indicate a bad situation for Vietnam? We probably do not know for sure.We, instead, can help develop a more optimistic economy from the prediction of CPI as well as inflation rate of Vietnam. From such in a higher place serious facts and figures, this project is conducted to analyze Vietnams CPI and factors affecting CPI, then, giving prediction about Vietnams inflation rate by forming an overall picture of variations in peoples living expenditure, thus assist judging the possibility of inflation which may flop even a huge economy of Vietnam due to the case of hyperinflation. 2. Methodology 2. 1. Method of collecting data and other sourcesAs discussed earlier and leave behind be examined deeper later in this paper, there are nearly factors that play an important role in deciding the level of consumer price index in Vietnam. They consist of the bowel movement of exchange rate (specifically, the USD/VND exchange rate), the price of petrol in Vietnam which is very critical, the Vietnamese rice price and governmental money supply. Through the application of econometric theories along with the examination of separately single factor, the model can be formed as follow CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+?In golf-club to gather the discipline regarding the four factors (in underage variables), a number of data have been hoard in the period 2000 2010 * The annual Vietnamese USD/VND exchange rate * The annual Vietnamese rice price * The annual money supply of Vietnamese government and other institutions * The annual petrol price of Vietnam. All the data gathered have been found from various sources on trusted websites, in which we can count on the reliability and accuracy of the statistics and other related information. 2. 2. Methods of processing the data The data gathered above are just raw data.Therefore, in order to deposit prediction about the level of CPI in Vietnam accurately, some processes and calculation surely need to be made. First time, the raw data ought to be processed through the power of such computational tools as Eview and Microsoft Excel. Particularly, Microsoft Excel will help determine the trend in the in reliant variables (exchange rate, rice price, money supply and petrol price) a s they change throughout the years and other necessary computation whereas Eview and its econometric calculations assist in figuring out some critical indicators (t-statistic, R squared, adjusted R squared, p-value, etc. . After having those numbers and indices, two tests (the t-test and the f-test) are professionally used to make out not only the degree of conditional relation of each in qualified variable but also the overall meaningfulness that all the independent variables contribute to the determination of CPI. From then on, it should be more convenient for us to make some anticipation about the trend of CPI in Vietnam based on the processed data we made. 3. Data analysis 3. 1. Consumer Price Index Figure 1 Vietnam CPI from 2000 to 2010First of all, the consumer price index (CPI) measures of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. In fact, it provides information about price changes in the nations economy to government, business, labor and pr ivate citizens and is used by them as a guide to reservation sparing decisions. Therefore, analyzing CPI is very important this aids in formulating fiscal and monetary policies. As can be seen from the chart, there was a steady increase in the CPI from 2000 to 2010. In other word, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living during 10 years.To specify, after undergoing a subtle ontogeny in the first fourth years from 100 to about 110, CPI increased significantly to a peak of around 210 in the last year. There are many factors including exchange rate, money supply, rice price and petrol price which cause this growth in CPI are being concerned. 3. 2. Exchange rate Figure 2 Vietnams USD Exchange rate from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled from 2000 to 2010, the exchange rate of USD/VND experienced an upward trend. In 2000, the USD/VND exchange rate was VND 14,170, then increased by 4% and 5% in 2002 and 2003 respectively.From 2003 to 2008, the exchange rate remained s circuit board around VND 15,700 which can be explained by some rationales. First of all, Vietnam primordial bank manipulated the foodstuff by selling USD and tried to adjust the exchange rate unchanged in following years (vietcombank, 2002). Moreover, due to the US economic instability and USD depreciation against other currencies, VND depreciated less than expected. In 2009, the exchange rate underwent a mess to VND17, 066 and continued increasing dramatically to VND 18,620 in 2010.Though the central bank implemented many policies to stabilize the exchange rate, it hush up rose significantly since many citizens had speculated the USD and waited until it appreciated much more against VND (scribd, 2010). Another reason is the real prerequisite in USD due to the increase in exported products and labours. According to Mr Nguyen Van Binh, vice p residual oilual oilent of the Central Bank, increasing exchange rate is an solventive tool crafte d by the central bank to boost export and economic development (luattaichinh, 2009). 3. . accelerator pedal price Figure 3 Vietnams retail petrol price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data accumulated, the gasoline price generally has an upward trend though the 11-year period from 2000 to 2010 Over the first 4 years from 2000 to 2003, the price of gasoline remained the same or changed not much. The 4 years of price stability had experienced the dramatic change, which was a huge increase to 122. 2% in 2006 (from 5,400 to 12000 VND). From that point of time, the gasoline price slightly felt to 11,300 in 2007.This is, however, followed by a significant growth from 11,300 to 16,320 VND in 2008 and fluctuated in the duration of 2008 and 2010. In culmination, the price of gasoline in Vietnam is predicted to be continuing to grow over the next few years. 3. 4. Rice price Figure 4 Vietnams rice price from 2000 to 2010 According to the data compiled, the rice price has an upward tre nd though the 10-year period from 2000 to 2010. The price of rice sold was fairly steady over the first 3 years from 2000 to 2003 with a slight rise to 100. 6%. This stability was followed by a sudden increase to 122. % in 2006. This trend was strengthenedby the fact that Vietnam became an official member of World Trade judicature (WTO) in 2007( BBC 2007), which rocketed Vietnams inflation to 12. 6% (ThuyTrang 2008). In addition, 20072008 world food price crises contributed a part in the growth of world food price in general and rice price in Vietnam in particular ( Compton etc. 2010, p. 20), leading to a remarkable rise on Vietnamese rice price to 215. 2% in 2008, and 251. 8% in 2010. To sum up, the Vietnamese rice shot up over 2. 5 times from 2000 (100%) to 2010 (215. %) and this trend is surmised to still keep going on in next few years. 3. 5. Money supply Figure 5 Vietnams money supply from 2000 to 2010 (in VND billion) Starting with nearly $ 200,000 billion in 2000, the amou nt of money in the economy saw a slight rise between 2001 and 2004 but money supply still lower than $ 500,000 million, before ending with a significant increase for the last period and reaching at $ 2,478,310 billion in 2010. With the amount of money in market increasing by from 15% to 50% each year Vietnamese have more money to spend and price level also affected. 4.Model specification 4. 1. Variables and relationships In order to study the movements of CPI in Vietnam, it is essential to evaluate the factors that drive the changes in CPI. a) USD/VND exchange rate It is easily seen that Vietnam has suffered from a great handle deficit which means import being more than export. Therefore, if the exchange rate USD/VND increases, which can be explained as VND depreciates against USD imported products will be more pricy than before. Since imported products exceed exported products, Vietnamese consumers have to suffer from higher price of all imported products.By that, domestic produc ers as the result will take improvement of this moment to increase the price of domestic products to compete with other foreign products. Tradable goods being half the basket of the CPI will increase the price which leads to the surge in the CPI. b) Petrol price Almost all the products directly or indirectly need the use of petrol as the main fuel for transportation, proceeds or substitute fuel for electricity, coal, etc. If the price of petrol increases, the cost of production will experience a rise as well.Hence, the producers will increase the prices of goods to compensate for the increase in production cost which contributes to higher CPI. c) Rice price One of the main categories that are included in the basket of goods when figure CPI is food. Vietnam is a country where people consume rice as the main food in daily meals, thus the change in rice price will affect the CPI of Vietnam. d) Money supply Lastly, as CPI is heavily dependent on the prices of goods and services, mone y supply is also one of the factors that have effect on CPI.This can be explained by the fact that the higher supply of money there is on the market, the lower the value of Vietnam currency is. As Vietnam Dong depreciates, prices of goods and services will be higher and vice versa. As a result, money supply changes lead to CPI changes. 4. 2. Model selection From the identification of the factors affecting CPI above, the variables will be denoted as follow CPI Consumer Price Index ER Exchange rate of USD/VND PPetrol price R Rice price MSMoney supplyA number of possible models are applicable for the research, and in order to evaluate the appropriateness of each model, we based on 2 criteria * R2 Coefficient of determination The percentage of variation in CPI is explained by the model. * CV Coefficient of variation The average misapprehension of the sample regression function relative to the mean of Y. The model with higher R2 and lower CV is better. a) Lin-Lin model CPI=? 1+? 2? ER+ ? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is dependant Variable CPI Method Least Squares Date 05/07/12 m 2220 Sample 2000 2010 include observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 49. 84103 25. 60055 1. 946873 0. 0995 ER 0. 000830 0. 001632 0. 508588 0. 6292 P 0. 002170 0. 000396 5. 480252 0. 0015 R 0. 236729 0. 046411 5. 100736 0. 0022 MS 2. 02E-05 5. 21E-06 3. 885527 0. 0081 R-squared 0. 998614 Mean dependent var 137. 9727 Adjusted R-squared 0. 997691 S. D. dependent var 39. 11026 S. E. of regression 1. 879410 Akaike info quantity 4. 402748 Sum squared resid 21. 19309 Schwarz criterion 4. 83610 Log likeliness -19. 21511 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 288740 F-statistic 1081. 125 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 490665 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 Table 1 EView regression result Lin-lin model Regression function CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS R2 = 0. 9 98614 CV=? Y=1. 879410137. 9727=0. 013622 b) Log-Log model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? ln(R)+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is Dependent Variable LOG(CPI) Method Least Squares Date 05/07/12 beat 2222 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1. 145265 1. 841843 -0. 621804 0. 5569 LOG(ER) 0. 215912 0. 205886 1. 048698 0. 3347 LOG(P) 0. 089703 0. 048661 1. 843424 0. 1148 LOG(R) 0. 413783 0. 038424 10. 76876 0. 0000 LOG(MS) 0. 081931 0. 034964 2. 343304 0. 0576 R-squared 0. 998138 Mean dependent var 0. 489313 Adjusted R-squared 0. 996897 S. D. dependent var 0. 268175 S. E. of regression 0. 014939 Akaike info criterion -5. 266690 Sum squared resid 0. 01339 Schwarz criterion -5. 085828 Log likeliness 33. 96679 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5. 380698 F-statistic 804. 0941 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 453663 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 Table 2 EView regression result Log-log model Regression function ln? (CPI)=-1. 145265+0. 215912? lnER+0. 089703? ln? (P)+0. 413783? ln? (R)+0. 081931? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 998138 CV=? Y=0. 0149390. 489313=0. 030531 c) Lin-Log model CPI=? 1+? 2? ln(ER)+? 3? ln(P)+? 4? lnR+? 5? ln(MS)+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is Dependent Variable CPI Method Least Squares Date 05/07/12 Time 2223 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1186. 909 420. 9102 -2. 819864 0. 0304 LOG(ER) 85. 49691 47. 05046 1. 817132 0. 1191 LOG(P) 9. 066673 11. 12034 0. 815324 0. 4460 LOG(R) 80. 80824 8. 780996 9. 202627 0. 0001 LOG(MS) 1. 356787 7. 990229 0. 169806 0. 8707 R-squared 0. 995428 Mean dependent var 137. 9727 Adjusted R-squared 0. 992380 S. D. dependent var 39. 11026 S. E. of regression 3. 414025 Akaike info criterion 5. 96616 Sum squared resid 69. 93340 Schwarz criterion 5. 777478 Log likelihood -25. 781 39 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5. 482608 F-statistic 326. 5862 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 282666 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 Table 3 EView regression result Lin-log model Regression function CPI=-1186. 909+85. 49691? ln? (ER)+9. 066673? lnP+80. 80824? ln? (R)+1. 356787? ln? (MS) R2 = 0. 995428 CV=? Y=3. 414025137. 9727=0. 024744 d) Log-Lin model ln(CPI)=? 1+? 2? ER+? 3? P+? 4? R+? 5? MS+? The estimated regression result obtained from EView is Dependent Variable LOG(CPI) Method Least Squares Date 05/07/12 Time 2223 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 4. 288043 0. 311641 13. 75958 0. 0000 ER 7. 55E-06 1. 99E-05 0. 379928 0. 7171 P 2. 76E-05 4. 82E-06 5. 717411 0. 0012 R 0. 000539 0. 000565 0. 953313 0. 3772 MS 1. 38E-07 6. 34E-08 2. 184042 0. 0717 R-squared 0. 995633 Mean dependent var 0. 489313 Adjusted R-squared 0. 992722 S. D. dependent var 0. 268175 S. E. of regression 0. 22878 Ak aike info criterion -4. 414290 Sum squared resid 0. 003141 Schwarz criterion -4. 233428 Log likelihood 29. 27859 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4. 528297 F-statistic 341. 9975 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 798845 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 Table 4 EView regression result Log-lin model Regression function ln? (CPI)=4. 288043+0. 000075? ER+0. 000027? P+0. 000539? R+0. 000014? MS R2 = 0. 995633 CV=? Y=0. 0228780. 489313=0. 046755 To sum up, we have a comparison of R2 and CV among the models R2 CV a 0. 998614 0. 013622 b 0. 998138 0. 030531 c 0. 995428 0. 24744 d 0. 995633 0. 046755 Table 5 R2 and CV comparison between models From the results above, the model a) is the most appropriate model to explain the relationship between CPI the other factors CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS 5. Regression interpretation and hypothesis testing 5. 1. Regression function coefficients interpretation The chosen Lin-Lin model and its interpretation are described as fol low CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS ?1=49. 84103 If exchange rate, petrol price, rice price and money supply equal 0 at the same time, CPI should be 49. 4103 on average. However, this does not make much economic sense as there is no situation that exchange rate, petrol price, rice price or money supply could be equal to 0. ?2 = 0. 00083 prop other variables constant, if exchange rate increases by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00083 units on average. ?3 = 0. 00217 Holding other variables constant, if price of petrol rises by 1 unit, CPI will increase by 0. 00217 units on average. ?4 = 0. 236729 Holding other variables constant, if rice price goes up by 1 unit, CPI will rise by 0. 236729 units on average. ?5 = 0. 0002 Holding other variables constant, if money supply increases by 1 unit, CPI will go up by 0. 00002 units on average. 5. 2. Hypothesis testing 5. 2. 1. Significance test of individual coefficients a) Test the individual significance of ? 2 * meter 1 H0 ? 2=0 Ha ? 2? 0 * meter 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 2-? 2SE(? 2) * standard 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 conclusiveness rule Reject H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5 T-stat value t=? 2-0Se(? 2)=0. 0008300. 001632=0. 508588 tc = 2. 447 * Step 6 Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to settle that ? is significantly different from 0 and by the piece significant ? = 5%. b) Test the individual significance of ? 3 * Step 1 H0 ? 3=0 Ha ? 3? 0 * Step 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 3-? 3SE(? 3) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5 T-stat value t=? 3-0Se(? 3)=0. 0020170. 000396=5. 480252 tc = 2. 447 * Step 6 Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 3 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. c) Test the individual significance of ? 4 * Step 1 H0 ? 4=0 Ha ? ? 0 * Step 2 T-s tatistic t-stat=? 4-? 4SE(? 4) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stattc(? 2, n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5 T-stat value t=? 4-0Se(? 4)=0. 2367290. 046411=5. 100736 tc = 2. 447 * Step 6 Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 4 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. d) Test the individual significance of ? 5 * Step 1 H0 ? 5=0 Ha ? 5? 0 * Step 2 T-statistic t-stat=? 5-? 5SE(? 5) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if t-stattc(? , n-k)=tc(0. 025, 6)=2. 447 * Step 5 T-stat value t=? 5-0Se(? 5)=2. 02? 10-55. 21? 10-6=3. 885527 tc = 2. 447 * Step 6 Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that ? 5 is significantly different from 0 and individually significant ? = 5%. 5. 2. 2. Significance test of overall model * Step 1 H0 ? 2=? 3=? 4=? 5=0 Ha i? 0 * Step 2 F-statistic f-stat=R2/(k-1)(1-R2)/(n-k) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if f-statfc(? ,k-1,n-k)=fc(0. 05,4,6)=4. 53 * Step 5 F-stat value f-stat=0. 998614/(5-1)(1-0. 998614)/(11-6)=1081. 125fc=4. 3 * Step 6 Conclusion Reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is enough evidence to conclude that at least one coefficient is different from 0 and the overall model is statistically significant. 5. 2. 3. Test of dropping insignificant variable From the test above, we drew the conclusion that ? 2 is insignificant. Thus, an F-test of dropping the independent variable of Exchange rate from the model will be conducted. The regression results obtained from EView of the current model is Dependent Variable CPI Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1107 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 62. 73309 3. 386991 18. 52178 0. 0000 P 0. 002123 0. 000364 5. 828831 0. 0006 R 0. 229613 0. 041843 5. 487545 0. 0009 MS 2. 22E-05 3. 29E-06 6. 758719 0. 0003 R-squared 0. 998555 Mean dependent var 137. 9727 Adjusted R-squared 0. 997935 S. D. dependent var 39. 11026 S. E. of regression 1. 777106 Akaike info criterion 4. 263137 Sum squared resid 22. 10674 Schwarz criterion 4. 407826 Log likelihood -19. 44725 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 171931 F-statistic 1612. 50 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 175208 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000000 Table 6 EView regression result New model The old model is CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998614 The new model is CPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS with R2 = 0. 998555 * Step 1 H0 ? 2 = 0 Ha ? 2 ? 0 * Step 2 F-statistic F*=(R2unrestricted-R2restricted)/Number of dropped regressors(1-R2unrestricted)/(n-k) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if F* Fc(? ,No,n-k) = Fc(0. 05,1,11-4) = 5. 59 * Step 5 F* value F*=(0. 98614-0. 998555)/1(1-0. 998614)/(11-4)=0. 29798 * Step 6 Conclusion F* Fc Do not reje ct H0 at ? = 5%. It is statistically reasonable to drop Exchange Rate variable from the model. The new model obtained isCPI=62. 73309+0. 002123? P+0. 229613? R+0. 00002? MS 6. Errors and limitation 6. 1. Limitations In spite of the results and discussion mentioned above, our report in general and our model in particular have their limitations that hinder our group to develop the most effective model. First and foremost, in data analysis, we presented a table of 1 dependent variable and 4 independent variables during the period of 2000-2010.In total, we have only collected 11 observations annually and the variables sometimes do not have the similar observations. It is obvious to state that the larger the sample size the higher the probability that our sample statistics get close to the true value or world parameters. For such reason, our small number observations may result in inaccuracy of the model. Furthermore, there exists mutual effects among the independent variables. For inst ance, the Money supply may have an effect on the Exchange rate. Additionally, the Rice price is also influenced by the Petrol price because petrol is the main energy source for production, etc.Such problems may falsify our results and they will be discussed further in the section of errors and remedies. To conclude, even though limitations exist, the foundation of our model is statistically undeniable. Nevertheless, any new econometric model constructed by us in the future will be designed and eliminated all negative limitations. 6. 2. Errors and remedials 6. 2. 1. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity exists due to some functional the existence of linear relationship among some or all independent variables. Multicollinearity can cause many consequences.For instance, OLS estimators have large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. This error can lead to large variances and covariances, making the estimation with less accuracy. In order to detect the exist ence of multicollinearity, a simple tool of detection which is VIF can be applied. Beforehand, a number of adjunct regressions that depict the relation ship between the independent variables must be done. Dependent Variable P Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1223 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2529. 790 3163. 446 0. 799695 0. 4470 R 28. 45504 39. 34718 0. 723179 0. 4902 MS 0. 003706 0. 002908 1. 274322 0. 2383 R-squared 0. 890213 Mean dependent var 10088. 18 Adjusted R-squared 0. 862766 S. D. dependent var 4656. 172 S. E. of regression 1724. 882 Akaike info criterion 17. 97071 Sum squared resid 23801730 Schwarz criterion 18. 07922 Log likelihood -95. 83888 Hannan-Quinn criter. 17. 90230 F-statistic 32. 43422 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 144479 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 00145 Table 7 EView regression result P-R,MS VIFP=11-R2P,R,MS=11-0. 890213=9. 1085510 Dependent Variab le R Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1311 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 67. 25990 15. 92311 4. 224043 0. 0029 P 0. 002156 0. 002982 0. 723179 0. 4902 MS 5. 93E-05 1. 82E-05 3. 250317 0. 0117 R-squared 0. 943086 Mean dependent var 144. 2364 Adjusted R-squared 0. 928858 S. D. ependent var 56. 29715 S. E. of regression 15. 01585 Akaike info criterion 8. 483090 Sum squared resid 1803. 805 Schwarz criterion 8. 591607 Log likelihood -43. 65699 Hannan-Quinn criter. 8. 414685 F-statistic 66. 28185 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 625481 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 000010 Table 8 EView regression result R-P,MS VIFR=11-R2R,P,MS=11-0. 943086=17. 5704710 Dependent Variable MS Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1313 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-Statistic Prob. C -912567. 0 169274. 2 -5. 391058 0. 0007 P 45 . 52633 35. 72593 1. 274322 0. 2383 R 9603. 994 2954. 787 3. 250317 0. 0117 R-squared 0. 949597 Mean dependent var 931956. 0 Adjusted R-squared 0. 936996 S. D. dependent var 761613. 1 S. E. of regression 191169. 4 Akaike info criterion 27. 38671 Sum squared resid 2. 92E+11 Schwarz criterion 27. 49522 Log likelihood -147. 6269 Hannan-Quinn criter. 27. 31830 F-statistic 75. 36010 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 509023 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 00006 Table 9 EView regression result MS-P,R VIFMS=11-R2MS,P,R=11-0. 949597=19. 8400910 From the results above, we see that VIFP 10 whereas VIFR, VIFMS 10. Thus multicollinearity does not exist for Petrol variable, while multicollinearity exists for Rice and Money tally variables. This can be explained by the fact that Petrol price is not influenced by other factors whilst Rice and Money Supply are influenced by Petrol price, as petrol is one of the main sources of energy for production of other goods and services. In general, mult icollinearity does exist in the model.Nevertheless, the sole purpose of our research is for prediction and prophecy the inflation level of Vietnam based on CPI and the factors affecting CPI. Therefore, multicollinearity is not a serious issue for our research and we decided to take no action at law to fix the problem. 6. 2. 2. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity makes economic models violate one assumption which is homoskedasticity of equal variance of error terms. Heteroskedasticity causes ordinary least squares estimates of the variance (and, thus, standard errors) of the coefficients to be biased, possibly above or below the true or population variance.As the consequence, biased standard error estimation can lead to both type I error (reject the true hypothesis) and type II error (do not reject false hypothesis). To detect the heteroskedasticity, there are a number of methods that can be applied. Among them, we chose Whites Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) to dete ct the existence of heteroskedasticity. * Step 1 H0 Homoskedasticity. Ha Heteroskedasticity. * Step 2 Run the OLS on regression to obtain residual ui Run the ancillary regression to get the new model u2=? 1+? 2X2i+ + ? qXqi+? q-1X22i+ +? 2q-1X2qi+vi H0? 2=? 3= = ? q W-statistic W=n?R2(R2 of the new model) * Step 3 Level of significance ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if W? 2? ,df=? 20. 05,6=12. 5916 * Step 5 W-statistic value From the results of EView, we have White Heteroskedasticity Test F-statistic 0. 609507 chance 0. 720319 Obs*R-squared 5. 253654 Probability 0. 511716 Test Equation Dependent Variable RESID2 Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1952 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -51. 06331 66. 56641 -0. 767103 0. 4858 P -0. 003894 0. 005892 -0. 60928 0. 5448 P2 1. 82E-07 3. 29E-07 0. 552995 0. 6097 R 1. 041681 1. 113821 0. 935232 0. 4026 R2 -0. 003233 0. 003599 -0. 898302 0. 4198 MS -1. 70E-05 3. 45E-05 -0. 490921 0. 6492 MS2 8. 86E-12 1. 31E-11 0. 676092 0. 5361 R-squared 0. 477605 Mean dependent var 2. 009703 Adjusted R-squared -0. 305988 S. D. dependent var 3. 115326 S. E. of regression 3. 560188 Akaike info criterion 5. 638630 Sum squared resid 50. 69977 Schwarz criterion 5. 891836 Log likelihood -24. 01247 F-statistic 0. 609507 Durbin-Watson stat 2. 651900 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 20319 Table 10 EView White Heteroskedasticity Test (without cross terms) W=n? R2=5. 253654 4 dU Reject H0 * dU d 4 dU Do not reject H0 * dL ? d ? dU or 4 dU ? d ? 4 dL Inconclusive k = 3, df = 11. dL = 0. 595dU = 1. 928 * Step 5 D-statistic value From EView table, we have D-statistic = 2. 175208 * Step 6 Conclusion We have 4 dU = 4 1. 928 = 2. 072 4 dL = 4 0. 595 = 3. 405 4 dU ? d ? 4 dL. There is not enough evidence to conclude whether first-order autocorrelation exists or not. b. Breusch-Godfrey test Breusch-Godfrey concomitant Correlation LM Test F-statistic 0. 399592 Prob. F(2,5) 0. 6903 Obs*R-squared 1. 515907 Prob.Chi-Square(2) 0. 4686 Test Equation Dependent Variable RESID Method Least Squares Date 05/09/12 Time 1440 Sample 2000 2010 Included observations 11 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0. 366991 3. 997023 0. 091816 0. 9304 P 0. 000262 0. 000749 0. 349805 0. 7407 R -0. 020687 0. 052521 -0. 393881 0. 7099 MS -1. 21E-07 4. 84E-06 -0. 025029 0. 9810 RESID(-1) -0. 121687 0. 700832 -0. 173632 0. 8690RESID(-2) -0. 759777 1. 305304 -0. 582069 0. 5858 R-squared 0. 137810 Mean dependent var -5. 51E-15 Adjusted R-squared -0. 724381 S. D. dependent var 1. 486833 S. E. of regression 1. 952445 Akaike info criterion 4. 478494 Sum squared resid 19. 06021 Schwarz criterion 4. 695528 Log likelihood -18. 63172 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4. 341685 F-statistic 0. 159837 Durbin-Watson stat 1. 950970 Prob(F-statistic) 0. 967201 Table 12 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test Lags 2 * Step 1 Identify Ho and HaHo No second order autocorrelation Ha snatch order autocorrelation * Step 2 Test statistic BG statistic = (n p)* R2 (p = df = number of degree of order = 2) * Step 3 Significance level ? = 5% * Step 4 Decision rule Reject H0 if BG ,p2=? 0. 05,22=5. 99174 * Step 5 BG-statistic value From EView table, we have BG = (11-2)*R2 = 9*0. 137810 = 1. 24029 5. 99174 * Step 6 Conclusion Do not reject H0 at ? = 5%. There is not enough evidence to infer the existence of second-order autocorrelation. In addition, we also notice that the p-value of first-order is greater than 0. 5, thus the first-order autocorrelation does not exist either. To sum up, there is no autocorrelation error in the model. 7. Conclusion After thoroughly investigating models and their significant, it can be inferred that the best appropriate model, which can well explain the relationship between CPI and affecting factors, is t he following one CPI=49. 84103+0. 00083? ER+0. 00217? P+0. 236729? R+0. 00002? MS Basing on the analysis, the model is proved to rather make sense as the fact that three independent variables, including petrol price, rice price and money supply, apparently affect Vietnams CPI.After testing, the USD/VND exchange rate, nevertheless, is clearly insignificant. Consequently, the exchange rate is reasonably dropped out of the model. Moreover, all independent variables have positive relationship with CPI since the increase of any variables may result in growth of CPI. Besides the effectiveness and meaningfulness of the model, errors and limitation still exist. Multicollinearity is found out to be the considered issue, however, it is truly difficult to have any suitable remedial. And, two rest errors including heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation are shown not to exist.It is the fact that the model is unavoidable to some errors and limitations, but these problems seem trivial and slight. From above analyzed data, the independent variables present a common trend of increasing, which leads to tendency of CPI to rise as well. Therefore, we insist that the CPI for the next years will boost. Despite Vietnamese governments important efforts to refrain the inflation rate, it is still essentially prone to escalate as a result of inevitable trend. Appendix Data of CPI, Exchange rate, Petrol price, Rice price and Money supply from 2000 to 2010Year CPI Exchange Rate Petrol price Rice price Money supply (VND billion) 2000 100 14,170. 23 5400 100 196,994. 00 2001 102 14,816. 76 5400 101 250,846. 00 2002 104. 3 15,346. 00 5400 101. 5 284,144. 00 2003 107. 6 15,475. 99 5600 100. 6 378,060. 00 2004 115. 9 15,704. 13 7000 114. 8 495,447. 00 2005 125. 5 15,816. 69 10000 118. 6 648,574. 00 2006 134. 9 15,963. 81 12000 122. 5 841,011. 00 2007 146. 3 16,126. 20 11300 142 1,254,000. 00 2008 179. 6 16,303. 54 16320 215. 2 1,513,540. 00 2009 192 17,066. 34 15700 218. 6 1,910,590. 00 2010 2 09. 18,620. 84 16850 251. 8 2,478,310. 00 References BBC, 2007. Vietnams WTO membership begins. visible(prenominal) online at URL http//news. bbc. co. uk/2/hi/business/6249705. immediate memory (Accessed May 4, 2012) Binh, N. V. 2009. Di? u hanh chinh sach t? gia nam 2008 va phuong hu? ng nam 2009. Available online at URL http//luattaichinh. wordpress. com/2009/02/26/di%E1%BB%81u-hanh-chinh-sach-t%E1%BB%B7-gia-nam-2008-va-ph%C6%B0%C6%A1ng-h%C6%B0%E1%BB%9Bng-nam-2009/ (Accessed May 4, 2012) General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2012. Trade, Price and Tourism statistical data. Available online at URL http//www. so. gov. vn/default_en. aspx? tabid=472&idmid=3 (Accessed May 4, 2012) Gujarati, D. N. , 2003. Basic Econometrics 4th edition. McGraw-Hill Higher Education. Indexmundi, 2011. Vietnam money and quasi money. Available online at URL http//www. indexmundi. com/facts/vietnam/money-and-quasi-money (Accessed April 26, 2012) Phuoc, T. V. & Long, T. H. , 2010. Ch? s? gia tieu dung V i? t Nam va cac y? u t? tac d? ng. Vietcombank, 2002. T? gia VND/USD ti? p t? c ? n d? nh tuong d? i. Available online at URL http//www. vietcombank. com. vn/News/Vcb_News. aspx? ID=1489 (Accessed May 3, 2012)

Hp-Logistics and Supply Chain Management Essay

It specializes in developing and manufacturing computing, data storage, and networking hardware, designing software and delivering services. study product lines include personal computing devices, enterprise, and industry standard servers, related storage devices, networking products, software and a diverse range of printers, and other imaging products. HP markets its products to households, small- to medium-sized businesses and enterprises directly as well as via online distribution, consumer-electronics and office-supply retailers, software partners and major technology vendors.HP also has strong services and consulting business around its products and partner products. HP believes that simplifying logistics industry supply grasps centers on a single premise the information surrounding in-transit materials and financial management is as valuable as the veridical physical goods. Thus, the better you synthesize and utilize the information embedded in the supply chain operations, t he more you can reduce complexity and prosper. To this end,The company laissez passer a four-pronged approach for addressing supply chain complexity1.A clear understanding of the challenges, and a vision of how to break through the complexity. 2. The broadest portfolio of services and technology in the industry for creating an integrated and agilesupporting infrastructure. 3. An industry architecture that maps this portfolio to the core business technology layers that areessential for a high-performing supply chain. 4. Service methodologies for assessing and refining the business and technology that propels supply chain performance.

Partial fulfilment of the Requirement Essay

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUNDIntroductionNowadays, we are experiencing diseases which is instanced by insects alike(p) mosquito. To shit some are Dengue, Hemorrhagic Fever, and Malaria wherein if non treated early it can cause expiry. Mosquitoes are all around the corner of our environment. They are not that big but can cut off life. To control the mosquitoes, different mosquito stinking are made and the laboratory chemicals are strong but they are quite expensive and not environmental friendly. Chemicals also are harmful to our health it may cause a sudden death in nerve of improper handling. In the rural barangays there are commonality herbal plants used by rural folks in exter minuteating harmful insects like mosquitoes. And so the research was conceptualized to detect the insecticidal effect of genus genus Alliums cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) on mosquitoes and recognize a mosquito repellent out of onion plant plant and ail, a not expensive repellent tha t everyone curiously the poor ones can afford.Garlic and Onion contains allicin that is capable of repelling mosquitoes and allicin is inimical to mosquitoes. Another reason is garlic and onion has also a strong look that overwhelms the mosquitos sense of smell and prevents from finding their prey (us).Statement of the ProblemThis study go forth be conducted to examine if there is an insecticidal effect in the invoke of Allium sativum (Garlic) and Allium cepa (Onion) on mosquitoes and to make a repellent out of it that will be guided with the following questions * Is there an insecticidal effect in the carry of Allium sativum (Garlic) and Allium cepa (Onion) on mosquitoes? * Is the extract of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) effective as a mosquito repellent?ObjectivesGenerally, the study aims to determine if there is an insecticidal effect of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) on mosquitoes.Specifically, the study aims to know if the extract of All ium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) is effective on repelling mosquitoes.Significance of the StudyThe study can encourage in repelling mosquitoes for it will examine the insecticidal effect of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) on mosquitoes. This study will be helpful to people especially those support with many mosquitoes around them for it will be easy for them to make it and its safe. And the repellent will be an environmental friendly. It can also help decrease the dengue and malaria outbreak.Scope and LimitationsThe study will be conducted from November 2012 to December 2012. It will be conducted on a cool warm dry room. The effectiveness of this repellent will be applicable to the place where the experiment will be conducted.HypothesisThere will be no insecticidal effect of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) on mosquitoes. The extract of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum will not be effective as a mosquito repellent.REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURERecently, our country is crucifixion from different kinds of outbreak just like dengue and malaria outbreak and this is caused by mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are around us, they are small but they can cause death if you are bitten with it. To control these insects some of us sully expensive insecticide though it is effective it is also harmful. Harmful to our health because it contain chemicals that if mishandled can cause to death. Its not also environmental friendly.Herbal repellent are commonly used by rural barangays where the people find it difficult for them to buy commercially available insecticides for mosquitoes, and so the researcher was conceptualize to examine if there is an insecticidal effect of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) on mosquitoes and to make a repellent that is effective to repell mosquitoes, a non-toxic repellent, an environmental friendly and a cheaper mosquito repellent.Onion and Garlic has an allicin that is capable of repelling m osquitoes and other insects. The allicin which is released by Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) are inimical by mosquitoes. The some other reason why Garlic and Onion can repell mosquitoes is their strong smell that overwhelms the mosquitos and prevent them from finding their prey (us).OnionOnion is the common name for herbaceous, cold season plant Allium cepa, which is characterized by an edible, rounded bulb composed of concentric, fleshy, tightly packed, and an enlarged leaf basses. Onion is also the name of this edible bulb, which is commercially valuable and known for its pungent oil that departs a strong taste.Onion are found in a large itemize of recipes and preparations spanning almost the totality of the worlds cultures. The whole plant is edible and is used as food in some form or other. They are now available in scented, frozen, canned, caramelized, pickled, powdered, chopped and dehydrated formed. Onion can be used, usually chopped our sliced, in almost every type of food, including cooked foods and fresh salads and as spicy garnish. In European cultures they are rarely eaten on their own, but usually act as accompaniment to the main course. Depending on the variety, an onion can be sharp, spicy, tangy, pungent mild or sweet.Onion contains allicin that is capable of repelling mosquitoes. Onions can also repel mosquitoes because of its strong odour and its spicy odor which mosquitoes hate. Commonly a red onion is used by repelling mosquitoes.Garlicgarlic is plant grown for its sharp-tasting bulb, which is used to season foods. Some plants link up to garlic including the onion also have strong flavour. The garlic bulb consists of parts called cloves. The cloves may be eaten or used for planting. A brittle chartaceous covering called a tunic grows around each cloves and around the whole bulb. There are several important components of garlic that have been identified, and many to a greater extent that have not. Alliin is an odourless sulphur-containing chemical derived from the amino acid cysteine.When garlic bulbs are crushed, alliin is converted into another compound called allicin. Allicin appears to be one of the primary active compounds that gives garlic its characteristic odor and many of its healing benefits. However, allicin is not absorbed effectively by the human body. To combat this problem, aged garlic is fermented to break allicin down to uncommitted compounds. These compounds are water-soluble sulphur compounds (S-ally cysteine and others) and an amount of oil-soluble sulphur compounds.Alicia is a powerful compound of garlic. If the garlic releases an illicit it is inimical to mosquitoes. They have therefore evolved to avoid garlic, another reason why garlic can repel mosquitoes is that the strong smell of garlic overwhelms the mosquitos sense of smell and prevents them from finding their prey (us).RESEARCH methodological analysisMaterialsAlliums cape (Onion) and Alliums stadium (Garlic) will be the main components of the repellent and will be the source of illicit. Cayenne pepper will be added to onion and garlic to make it spicier. Liquid dish soap will be needed to make the repellent fragrant. In getting the extract of Onion and Garlic, blender will be used. A sprayer is also needed wherein the repellent will be placed.Test OrganismFifty mosquitoes will be collected and must be distributed equally to five containers for the five adapt-ups. Mosquitoes will serve as the taste organism.Test ProcedureIn making the repellent, chop into small pieces the onion and garlic without peeling. Place the chopped onions and garlic at the blender with the cayenne pepper. hence place a 250 mol amount of water. Blend on a slow speed to a milky consistency. After blending place the extract of onion and garlic pin a empty bottle sprayer. stop an hour to add 50mL liquid dish soap for the extract will be odorous. hence shake well.In determining the insecticidal effect, there will be fiv e set up. The first repellent will have 100g of onion and garlic. Second set up will have 100g of onion and 70 g of garlic. Third setup will have 70g of onion and 100g of garlic. The fourth set-up will have 100g of onion and 100g of garlic and liquid dish soap will not be added. And the fifth set-up will be a commercial insecticide to determine is what is more(prenominal) effective.One set-up will be sprayed at the one container with mosquitoes and the researcher will record how long will all the mosquitoes take place and how many mosquito will die in one 30 sec, 1 min, 1 min and 30 sec, and 2 min. The other set-ups will also undergo this procedure.RESEARCH PLANStudents Name Kamille Joy P. Tamanu Year Level IV School Camalaniugan National High SchoolSchool Address Dugo, Camalaniugan, CagayanTitle of Project Insecticidal Effect of Allium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum on Mosquitoes Tel. /Fax. No (078)-844-2036Project adviser Rowena ArellanoThis years experiment beganConducted th e work at School and HomeMATERIALS AND METHODSMaterialsAllium cepa (Onion) and Allium sativum (Garlic) will be the main components of the repellent and will be the source of allicin. Cayenne pepper will be added to onion and garlic to make it spicier. Liquid dish soap will be needed to make the repellent fragrant. In getting the extract of Onion and Garlic, blender will be used. A sprayer is also needed wherein the repellent will be placed.Test OrganismFifty mosquitoes will be collected and must be distributed equally to five containers for the five set-ups. Mosquitoes will serve as the test organism.Test ProcedureIn making the repellent, chop into small pieces the onion and garlic without peeling. Place the chopped onions and garlic at the blender with the cayenne pepper. Then place a 250 mL amount of water. Blend on a slow speed to a milky consistency. After blending place the extract of onion and garlic pin an empty bottle sprayer. Wait an hour to add 50mL liquid dish soap for th e extract will be odorous.Then shake well.In determining the insecticidal effect, there will be five set up. The first repellent will have 100g of onion and garlic. Second set up will have 100g of onion and 70 g of garlic. Third setup will have 70g of onion and 100g of garlic. The fourth set-up will have 100g of onion and 100g of garlic and liquid dish soap will not be added. And the fifth set-up will be a commercial insecticide to determine is what is more effective.One set-up will be sprayed at the one container with mosquitoes and the researcher will record how long will all the mosquitoes die and how many mosquito will die in one 30 sec, 1 min, 1 min and 30 sec, and 2 min. The other set-ups will also undergo this procedure.BibliographyBookO.A Lorenz Academic American Encyclopaedia 1994 Vol.9, pp.48O.A Lorenz Academic American Encyclopaedia 1994 Vol.14, pp.390-391Anton A. Redneck, World Book 2006, Vol.8, pp.44George R. Hughes, World Book 2006, Vol.14, pp.163Internet Siteshttp//ww w.philippineherbalmedicine.org/garlic.htmhttp//www.philippineherbalmedicine.org/onion.htmhttp//organicgardeningweb.com/Recipe%20book/Pesticide%20Recipes/Garlic%20Spray.htmhttp//recipegoldmine.com/house/all-purpose-insect-spray.html

Case Analysis- Colgate Max Fresh: Global Brand Rollout Essay

Q1. Did China and Mexico each do a good job of holding the launch to picture topical anesthetic consumer needs? What is the likely profit impact of each plan? Which of the proposed adaptations were must turn outs versus nice to hold ins?ChinaThough freshness accounted for 28% of consumer drive for a toothpaste purchase was a new-fashioned concept Responses of the customer were above the norms for new toothpaste products in terms of buying behavior, perceived quality, value for money, and uniqueness Sales in first year of 3882 tons, COGS as 50 % of gross revenue and trade expenses of 78% Sales in second year of 4370 tons, COGS as 41 % of sales and market expenses of 42% Given this trend the expected contribution margin will go up to nearly 70% and if merchandise expenses comes down to 35% we produce an operating profit of 985,000$ in 3rd year. This adaptation is a must have as it clearly describes the need of the consumer that can be satisficed profitably.MexicoThe main re ason for purchase was cavity protection and freshness was an appealing concept. Responses of the customer were below norms for new toothpaste products in terms of intention to buy, buying behavior, perceived quality, and uniqueness. Sales in first year of 1600 tons, COGS as 47 % of sales and marketing expenses of 15% Sales in second year of 1850 tons, COGS as 40 % of sales and marketing expenses of 10% Given this trend the expected contribution margin will go up to nearly 70% and if marketing expenses comes down to 8% we have an operating profit of 700,000$ in year 3 This adaptation is a nice to have as it has acceptance that is slightly below par date at the same time preventing crest to gain acceptance in the market.Q2. From a global CMF perspective, what is the short- and long-term impact of the complexity born out of these local adaptations? Is this added complexity good or bad for the global CMF business?China sphericly, the short-term affects of the complexity born out of the se adaptations is rather expensive. Though it was expensive to adapt the Chinese advertisements, but in the long-term it will profitable since fressness is a important factor in china while making the purchase and the sales are increasing.MexicoIn Mexico, the cost of adaptation is about a third of that in China, but they havent reached the market as well as they would have liked. It whitethorn have just held off Crest in the short-term for value share, but in they should meet the expectation of the customers while adapting marketing plan for Mexico.Global ImplicationAdded complexity is crucial to Colgate Max Freshs global business as it shows that they have put lot of emphasis in conflict the customers needs and demand and positive reponse will be delivered. Had they not spent this time in studying customer needs the demand for the product would have dropped. Burton and Colgate-Palmolive need to make sure that they adapt all the aspect of their product to meet the consumers need an d demand in local as well as global markets .It may be expensive in the short-run, but it will pay off in the long-run.Q3. What guidelines could Burton propose going forward to optimize new product introductions for CP worldwide, for the regions, and for the country subsidiaries?Global marketing strategy involvesKeeping the Balance in the global brand and appeal to distinct regions. Successful global marketing campaigns, leveraging similarities to deliver same message and limit costs while also modifiying advertising to align with regional cultural preferences.Forces to drive the globalization of marketing and demandsMarket DriversGlobal customers, basic customer needs, Cooling crystalsCost DriversEconomies of scale potential of campaigns, different icon as per the different regions or countries, importance of tradeoff between icons and opportunistic locations.Competitive driversRealisation of global competitors, first mover advantage,threats from competitors innovationGovernment dr iversConsideration of regulation and censorship, unique promotion strategy when in that location is inability to mention competitors name, understanding the market potential while entering new territory, Identify the antecedents of brand value, objective seting for brand development, allocation of resources across products.

Nature Nurture

The psychological literary argument of nature vs. reproduction is wizard that has been deliberated and refuted for galore(postnominal) years. This debate is so controversial because although it is fact that communicable makeup does play a major role in developing a someone, the call forth and milieu in which a person is brought up in is also an to the highest degree-valuable factor. The nature vs. nurture issue dates back to Ancient Greeks, through the times of Aristotle and John Locke, with each philosopher projecting their own individual thoughts on the matter.Although nature depicts the emergence of a person in terms of their appearance and certain record traits, nature and the setting and situations in which a person grows up is much(prenominal) important in apologizeing the study of a person because last a person is an overall reflection of the purlieu of which they were brought up in. Psychologists argon speedy to support the nature debate because it deals with the genetic make-up of a person and biological psychology, which is fact. First of all, a persons physical traits, such as eye color and blood type be genetically determined, even though in that location ar certain styluss to alter your look.Personality is proven to be heritable to an extent. Studies bugger off proven that biological siblings argon more similar in spirit that adoptive siblings. In addition, a persons genes end determine whether a person is predisposed to a disease or illness, such as diabetes and Alzheimers (Davies). A person who is affected with those types of diseases shows how nature passel directly effect the development of an individual. A new technique called developmental genetic analysis is a procedure that examines the set up of genes through come forth a persons life.The technique concluded that a persons intelligence is due ab reveal 50% to the genes they are born with (Huang). Furthermore, the nature debate is plausible because of the gene tic factors that support how throngs personalities and appearance develops, yet the nurture of a person ultimately overshadows the nature debate because environmental factors better crop the development of a person Each person scratchs from antithetical backgrounds, religions, and environments, which are all external factors that play a large role in the development of an individual.Diet, stress, prenatal nutrition, peer pressure, and television are just some of the more specific environmental factors that preempt affect a person. Clearly, there are populacey more aspects of the nurture debate that contri unlesse to the argument that a persons upbringing is what allow for curve their development. For font, NBC reported that in a consider where striplings played violent video games and non violent video games, the violent video games were proven to enhance emotion in the amygdale, or the center for fear and aggression (Kalning).In this moorage the emotional effect from t he video games supports the nurture debate because normal teenagers with non violent behaviors and tendencies were affected by an outside force that has the potential of affecting the teenagers personalities. Nurture is more important in developing a person because despite a persons genetic coding, the parents and the adults that a minor is subjected to will play a gr tuckerer role in the sisters development. Research shows that parents who talk to their children and spend time helping them interact ultimately raise more socially developed and intellectually stimulated children (Dewar).Even if a child born had genius parents, the environment and the early stages of development are composeitative for the later stages of life. People are also highly influenced by their peers, and in the case of preschoolers who typically dislike a certain food will eat that particular food if children around them are eating it, showing that because it is the way of the human to want to fit and be liked, nurture has the great impact and influence over a person (Harris).Furthermore, nurture is more important in shaping a human being because there are multiple factors that can influence a person differently, even if they deport the same genetic background. Even though the nature vs. nurture debate is likely to always be challenged and discussed, it is possible that there may never be a right answer. The reason for this is that some(prenominal) situations and conditions factor in both the nature and nurture debate and there is reasoning in both cases to support either one as a reliable source.Overall, the biological traits and genes of a person enable individuals to figure and adapt to their surroundings, thus showing the debate is so closely related that it is difficult to determine which one more effectively contributes to the development of a person. However, the nurture issue states that a person is affected of the environment that they are brought up in, which is a more reliable source of the development of a person because there are more factors that influence environment than the biological aspects of the nature debate.Nature versus nurture. This has been a topic of debate for centuries. Years pack passe still non been prove regarding this issue. This is an argumentation of the ut around significance, not only because of its anthropological substance, that will help us understand where we come from and how our personality is formed, but also because of the moral, political, ethical, educational, social, and statistical issues that it discusses. The nature side of the polemic hypothesises that humans dribble as they do according to genetic endowment, or even animal instincts.The nurture side believes that pack think and be turn out certain ways because they are taught to do so. Neither of the above is the correct answer to the question, Why do we behave like that? The accurate answer is that heredity, meaning nature, is a true fact, but i t has a role of basis, in the building of our mind and personality. The biggest impact in our development is the environment in which we kick the bucket and grow up the nurture side. Therefore, nature is mostly influenced by nurture. Many scientists and authors have been arguing for the correct side, between nature and nurture.For example, William Golding, the English redeemr who wrote the reserve, nobleman Of The Flies, states generally that every man has a capacity to be evil from the beginning of his life. This statement shows that from the point of view of Golding, every person has an inherited characteristic, which would basically mean he is on the nature side of the debate. Another notable person that agreed with the nature side of the polemic was the scientist, Francis Galton, cousin of Charles Darwin, the famous naturalist.Galton was the man who first surfaceed the debate between hereditarians, a group of people who believe that heredity determinates our human nature, and environmentalists, people who believe that our environment has the biggest impact on our development. In 1865, he began to study heredity, basically the idea of nature. This was partly influenced by reading Darwins publication, Origin of Species. This thirst for knowledge led him to do very significant and important studies, the twin studies, hoping to find the different contributions of nature and nurture.His huge contribution to the debate, especially to the nature side, proves that he agreed with the theory of heredity. As mentioned earlier, Galton had a cousin named Charles Darwin. He was a British naturalist and big defender of the nature side of the debate. According to the Indian University Archives, without Darwin there would be no nature vs. nurture debate. Darwin wrote discordant pages on his autobiography about his familys contributions to his intelligence. However, he attributed his intellectual success on nature, not nurture. Proof is provided by, this sentence tha t he wrote about his brother I do not think that I owe much to him intellectually-nor to my four sistersI am inclined to agree with Francis Galton in believing that education and environment produce only a small effect on the mind of any one, and that most of our qualities are innate (Darwin, 43). Darwin believed that intelligent behavior came from the instincts of our previous, nonhuman ancestors. This proves that Charles Darwin, one of the brightest minds of the 19th century believed in the nature part of the argumentation. The point clearly stated through these three examples is that, the genetic predisposition (heredity) is real.Genetic predisposition may be a fact, but it isnt the reason why we behave the way we do. Heredity is only the basis. The formation of ourselves is due to the environment in which we grow up. An example of this theory is shown, Lord of the Flies. In the book, a group of kids find themselves all alone on an island. In this group we find different characte rs with diverse personalities and manners. Also, as previously mentioned, Golding, the author of the book, believed that everybody has the capacity of being evil. The kids in the story start developing that initial evil due to the new environment in which they live.A inappropriate, unknown, shuddery and dangerous environment leads to the development of an aggressive and violent comportment. In the book, we see that in the first chapters, Jack is a born leader with self-control. Generally he appears as a normal kid. But, as the story progresses, and the kids find new problems on the island, he starts developing his evil. At the end, he becomes a attack aircraft and confrontational leader of a violent mob. The new environment in which he lives causes this enormous assortment in his personality. Another example situated in the book is the case of Ralph.He is also a born leader, a boy who listens to reason and logic, and someone who always finds solutions to his problems. But, in th is new environment, as the kids around him start being evil, he starts losing his self-control, and develops a new character, where he is not the boy that he was before. This change occurs when Ralph joins Jacks mob and starts dancing with them shote and Ralph under the threat of the sky, found themselves eager to take a place in this demented but partly secured society (Golding, 152) . The last example is the case of Piggy. He is a tormented kid, a victim of bullying, but deep down he is a smart boy.In the book he finds himself being insulted by Jack all the time. For instance when Jack says Better call you Piggy than Fatty (Golding, 26 ) . The end points of this bullying are that he cant say his opinion or ideas when he is around of Jack, opinions that could be very helpful sometimes. But later in the story, when Jack leaves the group, and the environment of their small society becomes more friendly and calm, he feels more free and happy and he finally express his opinion and s hows his intelligent ideas to everybody, so basically the change of environment change him in like manner.The point I want to make with my examples, is that, we may all have, a groundwork , our initial nature that we inherited from our parents, but the biggest impact in the development of our personality is the environment in which we grow up, which can completely change us, like the characters in Lord Of The Flies Supporting my theory, Judith Rich Harris, the author of the book The Nurture Assumption Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do . She generally says in her book that she challenges the idea that the personality of adults is determined chiefly by the way they were raised by their parents.She also says that the role of genetics in personality has long been accepted in psychological research, however, even identical twins, which parting the same genes, are not exactly alike, so inheritance is not all. Another example that proves the theory that nurture has the most impact i n our personality is the case of Genie. Genie was a girl who spent nearly all her childishness inside a bedroom. She was a victim of one of the most relentless cases of social isolation in American history (ABCnews). The police discovered her in 1970 after spending all her life tide to a chair.The result of this loneliness, was that she was unable to speak, walk, socialize, and generally being normal after being rescued. We can see, that due to the fact that she was in an isolated and lonely environment her attitude and personality werent usual, so this proves that the environment in which somebody lives has a direct connection with his/hers development, even if she inherited a bright and regular attitude from her family. To eat ill say that heredity is a well known, scientifically proved, theory. A fact.But without the help of nurture, it isnt accurate. We become who we are, and we act the way we do because we are taught to do so. Thats how we learned . It doesnt matter how our genes are, and what we inherited from our parents. The environment in which we live in will define us. Genetic predisposition is not fatality David Kranzler WHEN THE BRITISH EDUCATOR Richard Mulcaster wrote in 1582 that Nature makes the boy toward, nurture sees him forward, he gave the world a euphonious name for an opposition that has been debated ever since.Peoples beliefs about the roles of heredity and environment affect their opinions on an astonishing range of topics. Do adolescents function in violence and substance abuse because of the way their parents treated them as toddlers? be people inherently selfish and aggressive, which would justify a market economy and a strong police, or could they become peaceable and cooperative, allowing the state to wither and a spontaneous socialism to blossom? Is there a universal aesthetic that allows great art to transcend time and place, or are peoples tastes determined by their era and culture?With so much at stake, it is no surpris e that debates over nature and nurture evoke such strong feelings. Much of the cacoethes comes from framing the issues as all-or-none dichotomies, and some of it can be transformed into light with a little nuance. Humans, of course, are not exclusively selfish or overgenerous (or nasty or noble) they are driven by competing motives elicited in different circumstances. Although no aspect of the mind is unaffected by learning, the brain has to come equipped with complex neural circuitry to make that learning possible.And if genes affect behavior, it is not by pulling the strings of the muscles directly, but via their intricate effects on a growing brain. By now most thinking people have come to distrust any radical who would front to say that the mind is a blank slate that is filled entirely by its environment, or that genes control our behavior like a player piano. Many scientists, particularly those who dont study humans, have gone further and expressed the hope that the nature- nurture debate will simply go away.Surely, they say, all behavior emerges from an inextricable interaction between heredity and environment during development. Trying to distinguish them can only stifle productive research and lead to sterile polemics. But moderation, like all things, can be taken to totals. The belief that its simplistic to distinguish nature and nurture is itself simplistic. The contributions of this opposition to our arrest of mind and society are far from obvious, and umteen an(prenominal) supposedly reasonable via medias unloosen out, under closer scrutiny, to be anything but.Lets consider some of the reasonable beliefs of the radical moderates. Reasonable Belief no. 1 No one believes in the extreme nurture position that the mind is a blank slate. Certainly few people today endorse the blank slate in so many words, and I suspect that even fewer believe it in their heart of hearts. But many people still tacitly assume that nurture is everything when they write opinion pieces, conduct research, and translate the research into policy. Most parenting advice, for example, is inspired by studies that find a correlation between parents and children.Loving parents have confident children, authoritative parents (neither too permissive nor too punitive) have well-behaved children, parents who talk to their children have children with better language skills, and so on. Everyone concludes that to rear the best children, parents must be loving, authoritative, and talkative, and if children dont turn out well, it must be the parents fault. But there is a basic problem with this reasoning, and it comes from the tacit assumption that children are blank slates. Parents, remember, provide their children with genes, not just a home environment.The correlations between parents and children may be telling us only that the same genes that make adults loving, authoritative, and talkative make their children self-confident, well behaved, and articulate. Until the studies are redone with adopted children (who postulate only their environment, not their genes, from their parents), the data are compatible with the possibility that genes make all the difference, the possibility that parenting makes all the difference, or anything in between. Yet in to the highest degree every instance, the most extreme position that parents are everything is the only one researchers entertain.Another example To a biologist the first question to ask in understanding conflict between organisms of the same species is How are they related? In all social species, relatives are more likely to help each other, and nonrelatives are more likely to hurt each other. (That is because relatives deal genes, so any gene that biases an organism to help a close relative will also, some of the time, be helping a copy of itself, and will thereby increase its own chances of prevailing over evolutionary time. But when the psychologists Martin Daly and Margo Wilson c hecked the literature on child abuse to see whether stepparents were more likely to abuse their children than biological parents, they discovered not only that no one had ever tested the possibility, but that most statistics on child abuse did not even record the information stepparents and biological parents were lumped together, as if the difference couldnt possibly matter. When Daly and Wilson did track down the relevant statistics, their be intimate was confirmed Having a stepparent is the largest risk factor for child abuse ever examined.The finding was by no means banal Many parenting experts insist that the hostile stepparent is a myth originating in Cinderella stories, and that parenting is a role that anyone can take on. For agencies that monitor and seek to prevent child abuse the finding of a greater risk with stepparents could be critical information. But because of the refusal to entertain the idea that human emotions are products of evolution, no one had ever thought to check. Reasonable Belief No. 2 For every question about nature and nurture, the correct answer is Some of each. Not so.Take the question, Why do people in England speak English, and people in Japan Japanese? The reasonable compromise would be that the Japanese have genes that make it easier for them to learn Japanese (and vice versa for the English), but both groups must be exposed to the language to acquire it fully. This compromise, of course, is not reasonable at all its false. Immigrant children acquire the language of their adopted home perfectly, showing that people are not predisposed to learn the language of their ancestors (though they may be predisposed to learn language in general).The explanation for why people in different countries speak different languages is 100 percent environmental. And sometimes the answer goes the other way. Autism, for example, used to be blamed on refrigerator mothers who did not emotionally engage with their children. Schizophrenia was t hought to be caused by mothers who put their children in double binds (such as the Jewish mother who gave her son two shirts for his birthday, and when he turned up wearing one of them, said, The other one you didnt like? ).Today we know that autism and schizophrenia are highly heritable, and though they are not completely determined by genes, the other likely contributors (toxins, pathogens, chance events in brain development) have nothing to do with parenting. Mothers dont deserve some of the blame if their children have these disorders, as a nature-nurture compromise would imply they deserve none of it. Reasonable Belief No. 3 Disentangling nature and nurture is a hopeless task, so we shouldnt even try. On the contrary, mayhap the most unexpected and provocative discovery in 0th-century psychology came from an effort to distinguish nature and nurture in human development. For a long time, psychologists have studied individual differences in intellect and personality. They have as sessed cognitive abilities using IQ tests, statistics on performance in school and on the job, and measurements of brain activity. They have assessed peoples personalities using questionnaires, ratings by other people who know them well, and tallies of actual behavior such as divorces and brushes with the law. The measures suggest that our personalities differ in five major ways.We are to varying degrees introverted or extroverted, neurotic or stable, incurious or circularise to experience, agreeable or antagonistic, and conscientious or undirected. Where do these differences come from? retort those flawed studies that test for the effects of parenting but forget to control for genetic relatedness. Behavioral geneticists have done studies that remedy those flaws and have discovered that intelligence, personality, overall happiness, and many other traits are partly (though never completely) heritable.That is, some of the variation in the traits among people in a given culture can b e attributed to differences in their genes. The conclusion comes from three different kinds of research, each teasing apart genes and environment in a different way. First, identical twins reared apart (who share their genes but not their family environment) are far more similar to each other than randomly selected pairs of people. Second, identical twins reared together (who share their environment and all their genes) are more similar than fraternal twins reared together (who share their environment but only half(prenominal) their genes).Third, biological siblings reared together (who share their environment and half their genes) are more similar than adoptive siblings (who share their environment but none of their genes). In each comparison, the more genes a pair of people share (holding environment more or less constant), the more similar they are. These studies have been replicated in large samples from many countries, and have ruled out the alternative explanations that have been proposed. Of course, concrete traits that patently depend on content provided by the home or culture are not heritable at all, such as the language you speak, the eligion you worship in, and the political party you belong to. But the underlying talents and temperaments are heritable how proficient with language you are, how receptive to religion, how hidebound or open to change. So genes play a role in making us different from our neighbors, and our environments play an equally important role. At this point most people leap to the following conclusion We are shaped both by our genes and by our family upbringing how our parents treated us and what kind of home we grew up in.Not so fast. The environment and our parents and home are not the same thing. Behavioral genetics allows us to distinguish two very different ways in which our environments top executive affect us. The shared environment is what impinges on us and our siblings alike our parents, our home life, and our neighb orhood (as compared with other parents and neighborhoods). The unique environment is everything else anything that happens to us over the course of our lives that does not necessarily happen to our siblings.Remarkably, study after study has failed to turn up appreciable effects of the shared environment often to the shock and dismay of the researchers themselves, who started out convinced that the nongenetic variation in personality had to come from the family. First, theyve found, adult siblings are equally similar whether they grew up together or apart. Second, adoptive siblings are no more similar than two people plucked off the street at random. And third, identical twins who grew up in the same home are no more similar than one would expect from the effects of their shared genes.Whatever experiences siblings share by growing up in the same home in a given culture makes little or no difference in the kind of people they turn out to be. The implications, drawn out most clearly b y Judith Rich Harris in her 1998 book The Nurture Assumption, are mind-boggling. According to a popular saying, as the twig is bent, so grows the branch. Patients in tralatitious forms of psychotherapy while away their 50 minutes reliving childhood conflicts and learning to blame their unhappiness on how their parents treated them.Many biographies scavenge through the subjects childhood for the roots of the grown-ups tragedies and triumphs. Parenting experts make women feel like ogres if they slip out of the house to work or skip a reading of Goodnight Moon. All these deeply held beliefs will have to be rethought. Its not that parents dont matter at all. Extreme cases of abuse and neglect can leave permanent scars. Skills like reading and playing a musical instrument can be imparted by parents.And parents affect their childrens happiness in the home, their memories of how they were treated, and the quality of the lifelong relationship between parent and child. But parents dont se em to mold their childrens intellects, personalities, or overall happiness for the rest of their lives. The implications for science are profound as well. Here is a puzzle Identical twins growing up together have the same genes, family environments, and peer groups, but the correlations in their traits are only around 50 percent.Ergo, neither genes nor families nor peer groups, nor the interactions among these factors, can explain what makes them different. Researchers have hunted for other possible causes, such as sibling rivalry or differential treatment by parents, but none has panned out. As with Bob Dylans Mister Jones, something is happening here but we dont know what it is. My own hunch is that the differences come largely from chance events in development. One twin lies one way in the womb and stakes out her share of the placenta, the other has to squeeze around her.A cosmic ray mutates a stretch of DNA, a neurotransmitter zigs instead of zags, the ontogeny cone of an axon goes left instead of right, and one persons brain might gel into a slightly different configuration from anothers, regardless of their genes. If chance in development is to explain the less-than-perfect similarity of identical twins, it says something interesting about development in general. One can imagine a developmental function in which millions of small chance events cancel one another out, leaving no difference in the end product.One can imagine a different process in which a chance event could derail development entirely, or send it on a chaotic path resulting in a ball or a monster. Neither of these results occurs with a pair of identical twins. They are distinct enough that our instruments can pick up the differences, yet both are healthy instances of that staggeringly improbable, exquisitely engineered system we call a human being. The development of organisms must use complex feedback loops rather than prespecified blueprints.Random events can divert the trajectory of growth, but the trajectories are confined within an envelope of functioning designs for the species. These profound questions are not about nature vs. nurture. They are about nurture vs. nurture about what, exactly, are the nongenetic causes of personality and intelligence. But the questions would never have come to light if researchers had not first taken measures to factor out the influence of nature, by showing that correlations between parents and children cannot glibly be attributed to parenting but might be attributable to shared genes.That was the first step that led them to measure the possible effects of parenting empirically, rather than simply assuming that those effects had to be all-powerful. The human brain has been called the most complex object in the known universe. No doubt many hypotheses that pit nature against nurture as a dichotomy, or that fail to distinguish the ways in which they might interact, will turn out to be simplistic or wrong.But that complexity do es not mean we should fuzz up the issues by saying that its all just too complicated to think about, or that some hypotheses should be treated a priori as necessarily true, necessarily false, or too dangerous to mention. As with other complex phenomena like inflation, cancer, and world-wide warming, when it comes to the development of a human being we have no choice but to try to disentangle the causes. Steven Pinker is Peter de Florez Professor of Psychology at MIT and author of The Language Instinct, and How the Mind Works. This essay is adapted in part from his latest book, The Blank Slate